13 Comments
Sep 3Liked by Alex Varghese

Yup pretty much. I'd be careful applying stuff about the impact of club managers to the international game, because they're fundamentally different jobs: you get less time to coach but have more control over your squad. If Poch is going to make a difference before the next World Cup, I think it'll come from using his international profile to continue Berhalter's success at recruiting dual nats — ordering new knives instead of sharpening what he's got.

Expand full comment
author

Appreciate you reading. Definitely considered the peril of applying your work on club managers to the international game, but figured that if club managers aren’t making a lasting results impact, then at an intl’ job with less time to coach they’d be even less likely to do so.

Very interesting point about the dual nationals - certainly a good case to be made that he makes the US a more attractive place to pick those players up on the margins.

Expand full comment
Aug 31Liked by Alex Varghese

Great Analysis Alex- I can’t argue with the stats even though I want to believe Pochettino will make a dramatic difference for USMNT.

I think the Berhalter era (pt. 2) was especially difficult because it seemed like the team’s focus was on NOT losing rather than aggressively/creatively producing scoring opportunities. For a country that embraces the risk taker (Hail Mary passes, deep 3 point shots), it’s hard to defend a conservative approach that doesn’t yield results.

Expand full comment
author

Glad you enjoyed Zach. That idea of Berhalter's approach being out of step with our sensibilities was something I actually thought a lot about while writing this. I think that there's a good chance we'll enjoy a more aggressive approach, even if it doesn't necessarily yield *better* results.

Expand full comment

I think US fans, at least most of us, recognize that the US team does not have top, world class talent. But, most every tournament, at least one team gels in a way that allows it to exceed expectations. Did Morocco suddenly become a top-4 world talent in 2022? Obviously not, but that team made it to the semi-finals. And I think Pochettino, and his style of play, is much more likely to foster an unexpectedly positive result in 2026 than was Berhalter, even if such a result is still very unlikely.

Expand full comment
author

I agree that Pochettino’s style could create more variable results. But I think those probably go in both directions, maybe you make it more likely to make a surprise run to a semi-final while also becoming more likely to get sent home in the group. If you just were more likely to get better results than you’d have a value adding manager, which there isn’t a lot of evidence for.

Expand full comment

I see this as value added by a change in strategy/approach (which happens to be implemented by a new manager). Under Berhalter, it felt like the style of play did not effectively match up with the players available on the roster. I anticipate that will change, as Pochettino has a history of implementing his aggressive approach through young players, and that is why I'm excited about the move.

Expand full comment
author

Not saying you shouldn't be excited about the move - it could be more fun. What I am saying is that holding onto models like Morocco or Iceland, where we wish (either explicitly or not) that hiring Pochettino could generate an unlikely run to the semi-finals without also introducing a bunch of negative variance too, is why we can't ever be happy with any manager we have. In the history of the USMNT, which managers have we actually been satisfied with? Have they all been misusing our talent?

Expand full comment

A better question is what countries are consistently happy with their national team manager? Only a handful each world cup cycle, right?

I agree with the general consensus that Pochettino is more likely to get better results than Berhalter. I fully acknowledge that the team could flame out again, but, that is true for literally every team in the tournament. It is mathematically impossible for every team in the World Cup to meet or exceed expectations, which is why most fans are unhappy with the manager and/or players every four years.

And to answer your question, Robert Millar.

(I'd add Bruce Arena following the 2002 WC.)

Expand full comment

People liked Bora but maybe that’s kind of an exceptional situation.

Expand full comment

One of the problems with this approach is that one of the drivers of player value is player and team performance at international competitions (especially for nations outside of the global microscope like the US). James Rodriguez was a very good, but not top tier, player entering the 2014 World Cup. Exiting the 2014 World Cup, he was a $100mm transfer to Real Madrid, the biggest in Madrid's history.

If MP can unlock the potential of 1 or 2 players, he will raise the aggregate transfer value of the US.

Expand full comment
author
Sep 3·edited Sep 3Author

I think transfer fees, which you're referring to here, are a little noisier than wages (transfer fees are more reflective of potential than wages) which are what Muller's study in this piece are tracking to success. Wages are more liquid and tend to track much closer to current ability, which is what we'd be interested in while gauging the success of managers.

Also to the point of Pochettino unlocking players - I struggle to think of any examples of National Team managers improving any of their players. They spend too little time together compared to club managers, which makes me think the development aspect of Pochettino might not be fully utilized as USMNT manager. Perhaps Pochettino can find a way to better showcase certain players, which could improve their wages, but I think more likely than not Berhalter was already doing an okay job at that, given the US's performance correlating with their talent estimates I cited in the piece.

Expand full comment

I agree that national team coaches don't make that much of a difference in a players quality. I do think that by featuring different players and featuring existing players in different ways, they can raise the transfer value (and the wages) of existing players, which in turn raises the wages of the team, which makes it look like the team's performance is directly correlated to its wages. It's a circular argument.

Berhalter was terrible at team selection and team formation. He played the same guys in the same positions over and over and over again. He froze players out because they didn't "fit the group."

Expand full comment