Minor edit - we didn’t introduce PFF WAR, we constructed our own version of WAR for football inspired by some baseball approaches and then Eric Eager and crew did their own for PFF WAR shortly after with a different approach (this doesn’t change the takeaway message though about positional value)
Thanks for the clarification - will fix that in the piece. I read the WAR piece you authored all the time when I’m writing football pieces, it’s great work!
Would love him to find his way to a McVay, McDaniel, Shanahan type and see if decent coaching would do him any good. Always a chance that he is a guy who just isn't going to work anywhere but absolutely has the tools.
Really really great piece. As jet fan me and my dad talk about this all the time. It always comes with having a decent enough offensive line, weapons, pretty good coaching, and trusting the process to help the young QB develop. The Jets just have never had patience and enough luck to do this.
Really interested to see if we see Bryce Young take a step forward this year despite being thrown into the fire with a mediocre line, minimal weapons, and a coaching fire.
Thanks for reading! Bryce Young was definitely top of mind when writing this piece. There are some hopeful signs in Carolina in big O-Line investments (Young was getting horrible blocking last year). I'm hoping some additional receivers join Diontae Johnson to help in receiving. The hiring of Dave Canales I also think is an excellent move. He saved Baker Mayfield in Tampa and seems like the perfect guy to get Bryce Young firing as well.
This is interesting. The part that caught my eye was that the NFL GM problem is very similar to looking at a government's problem. The agents involved pretty much always choose to do what is best for themselves, instead of what (in theory) their job is, which is to do what's best for the party they represent.
Thinking of GMs like politicians, cockroaches who will do anything to keep themselves alive, successfully rationalizes a lot of galling decisions undertaken by NFL front offices. For instance, look at the Colts this year. Starting Joe Flacco (who played like a top ten QB in his starts) is absolutely better for the Colts, but starting Anthony Richardson is likely better for Chris Ballard, and with the system that's in place, the best interests of Chris Ballard were able to win out over the best interests of the Indianapolis Colts.
This is wrong, and like you said, it systematically creates worse results at the job the GM was hired to do (just like it does for politicians), but as long as turnover cycles are so quick, it's going to be hard to get this cockroach mindset out of the game. GMs persistently refusing to do their jobs is hurting the game, by taking good teams (and therefore good games) away from the fans, in favour of throwing a rookie QB out there to rot in a desperate attempt to save themselves, so perhaps the NFL as a league ought to consider doing something about this. I really do think the NFL would be a better place if every team were just trying to be as good as they can be, instead of perpetually falling victim to this saviour complex.
It's things like this that make winning a dirty word in the NFL. Teams have convinced their fans that losing on purpose (like in the Richardson over Flacco situation) is a good thing, when it's not. Look at all the losing Houston did before drafting CJ Stroud. Was it worth it? No, because (for the most part) there's a good QB in the draft every year, that Houston could've found. No four win seasons required. Losing is never worth it, but the NFL's teams have managed to convince their fans that losing is a good thing due to this saviour complex.
Good article Alex. Shame I took so long to find it, but this issue is a real issue, and the league ought to do something to try to eradicate it.
Minor edit - we didn’t introduce PFF WAR, we constructed our own version of WAR for football inspired by some baseball approaches and then Eric Eager and crew did their own for PFF WAR shortly after with a different approach (this doesn’t change the takeaway message though about positional value)
Thanks for the clarification - will fix that in the piece. I read the WAR piece you authored all the time when I’m writing football pieces, it’s great work!
You need certain skill levels to be an NFL QB. To be elite though you need these things.
The ability to read and process defenses quickly and then deliver the ball with accuracy and anticipation.
This must be done under pressure and calmly.
Therefore quick release, good technique ( footwork) and maturity are essential.
A sense of confidence and competiveness are the essential.
Absolutely - keep your eyes peeled this week for an interview with some great substackers about the tools needed for top QBs.
Fantastic stuff as always, Alex. You have a great broadcast voice!
Glad you enjoyed!
Great article man!
Let's see if Zach finds his way on a different team.
Would love him to find his way to a McVay, McDaniel, Shanahan type and see if decent coaching would do him any good. Always a chance that he is a guy who just isn't going to work anywhere but absolutely has the tools.
I'd love to see ZW in KC, learning under Reid/Mahomes. Fun fact: Both the Jets and KC had the same pocket time of 2.5 seconds per snap.
Really really great piece. As jet fan me and my dad talk about this all the time. It always comes with having a decent enough offensive line, weapons, pretty good coaching, and trusting the process to help the young QB develop. The Jets just have never had patience and enough luck to do this.
Really interested to see if we see Bryce Young take a step forward this year despite being thrown into the fire with a mediocre line, minimal weapons, and a coaching fire.
Thanks for reading! Bryce Young was definitely top of mind when writing this piece. There are some hopeful signs in Carolina in big O-Line investments (Young was getting horrible blocking last year). I'm hoping some additional receivers join Diontae Johnson to help in receiving. The hiring of Dave Canales I also think is an excellent move. He saved Baker Mayfield in Tampa and seems like the perfect guy to get Bryce Young firing as well.
Great read! To me, this is so key: "we’ll need to shift our focus away from how teams evaluate prospects and instead to how these teams develop them."
Thanks Melissa - glad you enjoyed!
This is interesting. The part that caught my eye was that the NFL GM problem is very similar to looking at a government's problem. The agents involved pretty much always choose to do what is best for themselves, instead of what (in theory) their job is, which is to do what's best for the party they represent.
Thinking of GMs like politicians, cockroaches who will do anything to keep themselves alive, successfully rationalizes a lot of galling decisions undertaken by NFL front offices. For instance, look at the Colts this year. Starting Joe Flacco (who played like a top ten QB in his starts) is absolutely better for the Colts, but starting Anthony Richardson is likely better for Chris Ballard, and with the system that's in place, the best interests of Chris Ballard were able to win out over the best interests of the Indianapolis Colts.
This is wrong, and like you said, it systematically creates worse results at the job the GM was hired to do (just like it does for politicians), but as long as turnover cycles are so quick, it's going to be hard to get this cockroach mindset out of the game. GMs persistently refusing to do their jobs is hurting the game, by taking good teams (and therefore good games) away from the fans, in favour of throwing a rookie QB out there to rot in a desperate attempt to save themselves, so perhaps the NFL as a league ought to consider doing something about this. I really do think the NFL would be a better place if every team were just trying to be as good as they can be, instead of perpetually falling victim to this saviour complex.
It's things like this that make winning a dirty word in the NFL. Teams have convinced their fans that losing on purpose (like in the Richardson over Flacco situation) is a good thing, when it's not. Look at all the losing Houston did before drafting CJ Stroud. Was it worth it? No, because (for the most part) there's a good QB in the draft every year, that Houston could've found. No four win seasons required. Losing is never worth it, but the NFL's teams have managed to convince their fans that losing is a good thing due to this saviour complex.
Good article Alex. Shame I took so long to find it, but this issue is a real issue, and the league ought to do something to try to eradicate it.